论社会形势中的不确定性与社会稳定

社会形势中的不确定性是指国际国内形势中对我国安全与稳定有可能产生严重影响乃至全局性影响的潜在因素。它具有参量增多,内容与形式多样化;变量剧增,引发各种突发事件的概率提高;能见度差,演变过程与趋势不清晰等主要特征。所以,必须运用自然科学方法研究社会形势中的不确定性,努力把握由模糊关系和偶然性造成之不确定性,建立社会形势“安全阀”、“缓冲带”,提高控制有组织犯罪的能力,建立健全社会安全与稳定的预警机制。

On the Uncertainty and Social Stability in Social Situation

The uncertainty in social situation refers to the potential elements that can exert grave and even overall influence on our country' s safety and stability in international and domestic situation. It has the following characters: the parameter is growing in number and the content and form diversifying; the variable is greatly increasing and the probability that all kinds of incidents suddenly erupt is enhancing; the visibility is poor and the evolutional process and trend are not clear, etc. So we must apply the scientific approach to the study of the uncertainty in social situation, try to grasp the uncertainty caused by the vague relation, contingency, establish the safety valve and "buffer zone of social situation, improve the ability to control organized crime and set up and perfect the preventive mechanism of social safety and stability.