“一带一路”、中间地带与美国对华战略博弈

基于争夺国际中间地带的地缘战略传统,美国将“一带一路”倡议作为对华战略博弈的重要场域。自中国提出并落实“一带一路”倡议以来,美国政府的反应策略可以划分为战略意图警惕、少边主义阻断和多边制度竞争三个阶段。美国对华竞争策略的演变逻辑集中表现为愈发强调争夺中间地带国家的重要性,以谋取第三方支持作为其“竞赢”中国的战略工具。美国对中国及其“一带一路”倡议的负面战略评估,以及美国国内外对华共识凝聚力的上升,为其对华竞争手段赋予了承诺扩大化、议题安全化和策略明晰化的特质。美方的举措破坏了国际多边合作机制的现有框架,也在美国社会层面扰乱了舆论生态和决策环境,加剧了国际安全环境中的不可控风险。跟踪分析美国针对“一带一路”倡议在中间地带展开的竞争举措,不仅能够理解中美关系的演变轨迹与发展趋势,也要求中国通过战略研判、意图传递与制度对接等路径予以应对。

The BRI, Intermediate Zones and US Strategic Game with China

Based on the strategic tradition of contending for intermediate zones, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is regarded by the US as a central dimension in its strategic game with China. Since China proposed and implemented the BRI, the US government’s response strategies have witnessed three phases: being wary of China’s strategic intentions, imposing minilateral limitations against China, and going into multilateral institutional competition with China. The evolving logic of the US competitive strategies against China lies in its increasing emphasis on snatching intermediate zones and seeking third-party support as a strategic tool for outcompeting China. The negative evaluation of China’s BRI and increasing domestic consensus on US-China competition have led the US government to employ such competitive policy tools against China as expansion of commitments, securitization of issues and clarification of tactics. These strategic moves on the part of the US have undermined the existing international multilateral cooperation mechanisms, disrupted the ecology of public opinion and decision-making environment in American society, and exacerbated risks in current international security environment. Tracking and analyzing the US competitive measures against the BRI is conducive to a better understanding of the evolutionary trajectory and development trends of China-US relations. It requires China’s effective response through strategic analyses, intention expression and institutional coordination.