The Level of Democratization Related to Socioeconomic Variables in 147 States in 1980-85

It is argued in this article that democratization is causally related to socioeconomic variables indicating the distribution of economic and intellectual power resources among competing groups. This assumption has been deduced from an evolutionary theory of politics, according to which politics is principally a struggle for scarce resources. Consequently, democracy is assumed to emerge in conditions in which power resources have become so widely distributed that no group is any longer able to suppress its competitors or to maintain its hegemony. Empirical variables were formulated to measure hypothetical concepts 'democracy' and 'power resources'. The hypothesis is tested by empirical data covering 147 states of the period 1980–85. The results of correlation analysis show that the principal explanatory factor, the Index of Power Resources, statistically explains about 70 percent of the variation in the Index of Democratization. Regression analysis is used to disclose how well the general relationship applies to single countries and which countries deviate from the general pattern. High negative residuals are interpreted to mean that the level of democratization should be much higher than it actually is, and high positive residuals can be interpreted to mean that the level of democratization is much higher than expected on the basis of the country's social conditions.