| 中国对外贸易与就业:基于协整和误差修正模型的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张小雪,陈万明. 中国对外贸易与就业:基于协整和误差修正模型的分析[J]. 浙江省政法管理干部学院学报, 2006, 0(6): 55-59 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张小雪 陈万明 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文定量分析表明，我国对外贸易进出口与城镇失业人数之间存在长期均衡关系，即进口每增长1个百分点能够引起我国城镇失业人数下降1．6个百分点；出口每增长1个百分点会导致失业人数增加1．75个百分点。但从短期来看，上期失业人数增加和上期进口增加对本期就业有一定的压力，出口则对就业的作用不显著。中国对外贸易出口拉动政策虽然在一定程度上带动了经济增长，但可能不利于中国宏观就业均衡目标的实现。
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| 关 键 词： | 协整 对外贸易 失业 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-1505（2006）06-0055-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-15 |
Foreign Trade and Employment in China: Analysis Based on Cointegration Method and ECM |
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| ZHANG Xiao-xue,CHEN Wan-ming. Foreign Trade and Employment in China: Analysis Based on Cointegration Method and ECM[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Gongshang University, 2006, 0(6): 55-59 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiao-xue CHEN Wan-ming |
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| Abstract: | We have found that in a long term, if imports increase 1 per cent, unemployment works would decrease 1.6 per cent. If exports increase 1 per cent, unemployment works would increase 1.75 per cent. In a short term, the increase of unemployment works and imports in the previous year would lay a burden on the employment in the following year. Obviously, the export - promoting policy is not as effective as we have expected. |
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| Keywords: | cointegration foreign trade unemployment |
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