Changing State Fiscal Capacity and Tax Effort in an Era of Devolving Government, 1981 2003

The American system of fiscal federalism requires that stateand local governments finance the bulk of their budgets fromown-source revenues, not transfers. This article analyzes statetotal taxable resources from 1981 to 2003 to evaluate how statefiscal capacity has changed in that time and how it has beenaffected by national recessions, to examine the extent to whichfiscal capacity differs among states and whether capacity hasconverged, and to consider whether states have responded toservice demands by changing tax effort and whether tax efforthas converged in the face of interstate competition and otherharmonizing forces. Because the capacity measure employed herecan be compared across years, something impossible with majoralternative indices, the analysis provides insights importantto the analysis of fiscal federalism and of the implicationsof revenue devolution not previously possible.