北京市人口调控的政策演变及未来策略

长期以来,人口调控是特大城市在人口发展中所面临的重大政策安排。然而,学术界对于今后北京市的人口是否还需要调控、调控什么、如何调控等问题都存在着很多的疑问和思考。研究在对北京市人口调控阶段进行分析的基础上,重点对新时期以来的人口调控政策特点和面临的挑战进行了探讨。研究认为,北京市人口调控政策呈现出进入国家重大发展战略,摆脱主要依靠行政管控的状态、多种调控方式并存,产业疏解开始扮演重要角色等特点。同时,北京市人口调控面临着如何对人口变化形势进行准确判断,如何在人口调控的同时保持城市发展活力和可持续发展等挑战。未来,北京市的人口调控仍然具有必要性。为实现北京市可持续发展的目标,研究建议,应该坚持目标导向、以城市高质量发展为引领,加强人口调控顶层设计,加大间接性的经济和市场引导,加强人才队伍建设。

The Evolution of Population Regulation Policy in Beijing and Its Future Strategies

Population regulation has long been a major policy arrangement faced by megacities in population development. However, there are many perplexities in academia about whether and what the population in Beijing needs to be regulated by the government and how to regulate it in the future. Based on the analysis of the population regulation periods in Beijing, the research focuses on the characteristics and challenges of the population regulation policy in the new period. The research concludes that Beijing''s population regulation policy is characterized by its initiation into a major national development strategy, a shift away from relying mainly on administrative control, the coexistence of multiple regulation methods and the industrial decentralization beginning to play an important role, etc. Meanwhile, the population regulation in Beijing faces the challenges of how to accurately evaluate the changing situation of the population and how to ensure the vitality and sustainable development of the city while regulating its population. In the future, population regulation in Beijing is still necessary. In order to achieve the goal of sustainable development in Beijing, the research suggests that we should adhere to the goal-oriented and urban high-quality development, strengthen the top-level design of population regulation, increase indirect economic and market guidance, and strengthen the construction of talent team.