定量风险分析在恐怖袭击风险评估中的应用

本文回顾了定量风险分析的发展过程,提出了对恐怖主义风险进行评估、定量的方法。在定量过程中,根据已经获得的情报资料和以往类似事件的总结,结合专家意见,采用定量分析方法对数据进行处理,得出最可能的袭击目标,威胁的属性,确定出袭击的幕景。采用事故树分析其威胁模型,采用事件树分析系统脆弱性,得出袭击的后果及目标中存在的最大脆弱性。为在恐怖威胁下做出有效决策提供了理论依据。并以体育馆为例,用理论进行了实例分析。

Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment on Terrorism Attack

reviewed the progress of quantitative risk assessment, proposed the methodology to assessment and quantita- tive the risk of terrorism attack. According to the intelligence and the summarization of the past events, com- bined with the opinion of the exports, adopt quantitative analysis to treat the data. Through the analysis, identified the potential attack target, the attribute of the threats, find the attack scenario. Use fault tree to analysis the threat model, use event tree to analysis the vulnerability of the target. Then elicit the consequence and the vulnerability in the system. Provide evidence for the risk decision of terrorism attack. Finally, use the methodology analyse the risk of a sports venue when it confront with the terrorism attack.