中国外贸失衡决定因素的实证分析

近年来，全球经济失衡调整中的中国对外贸易不平衡发展已经成为全球瞩目的重大问题，对中国外贸持续失衡的成因探讨成为学术界关注的重要议题之一。本文以产品内分工为切入点，通过构建分析中国外贸失衡决定性因素的计量模型并进行实证分析。结果表明，中国中间产品进口额的上升以及中国利用FDI的增加是中国外贸失衡的决定因素，而所谓“人民币低估”等并非中国外贸失衡的影响因素。据此本文认为，以典型的“外资嵌入型”方式全面融入产品内国际分工体系，在国际生产网络中充当“价值增值地”和“出口平台”，是中国外贸失衡的根本原因。由于其决定性因素在短期内难以改变，中国外贸失衡具有长期性，所以“缓解”的措施应从引进FDI的产业政策导向、实施“走出去”战略以及培育自身高级要素等着手。

Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of China's Unbalanced Foreign Trade Development

In recent years, unbalanced development of China's foreign trade has been the focus in rebalancing global economy. Under this background, studies on the reasons of unbalanced development of China's foreign trade has aroused many economists' interest. From perspective of intra-product specialization, this paper establishes the econometric model analyzing the determinants of China's unbalanced foreign trade development, and carries out empirical analysis. The results show that increase of China's input imports and inflow FDI are the main determinants of China's unbalanced foreign trade development, but so called under-evaluation of RMB is not. Accordingly, this paper argues that China’s involvement into intra-product specialization system with characteristic of using FDI to act as export platform for MNCs is the fundamental reason for China's unbalanced foreign trade development. This determinants will not change in short run, so unbalanced development of China's foreign trade will continue for long time, and more effective measures easing China's unbalanced foreign trade development should be in terms of inward FDI policy. China enterprises should go globally and cultivate China's advanced factors.