二元财政政策影响农村居民税负的数量分析

由于非正式财政的存在、统计技术的不成熟和统计制度的不透明，农村居民的实际负担无法从官方数据中反映出来。但是，从城乡差距入手，可以利用各类公开出版发行的统计资料，运用数理经济模型间接测算出中国农村居民每年的实际税率和政府每年从农业部门转移出去的农业剩余。测度结果表明，自1957年以来，农村居民的负担被严重低估，同时，虽然近年来，农村居民的负担略为减轻，但是，高税率的长期存在还是不可避免。因此，缩小城乡差距的政策不但要注意加大对农业部门的投入，而且还应该关注农村税负的减免。

Econometrical Analysis On Dual fiscal Policy and Tax Burden of Rural Residents

Due to nonformal finance,unskillful statistical techniche and unexoteric statistical institution,the burden of rural residents could not be found from the official data.But the rural residents’ factual tax rate and the transferred agricultural surplus per year could be indirectly measured by taking advantage of all kinds of publized statistical data in a mathematical model founded upon the gap between the rural and urban.The measured outcomes indicate that the burdens of rural residents had been badly underesitimated from 1957.Meanwhile,although the burdens of rural residents has been alleviated a bit in recently years,the long-run availability of high rate of tax can not been avoided.To eliminate gap between the urban and rural,such policies should be taken that we would not only increase fiscal input to rural region,but also cut down rural tax.