Stochastic models for analyzing Criminal Careers |
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Authors: | John B Copas Roger Tarling |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Statistics, Birmingham University, Birmingham, England;(2) Home Office Research and Planning Unit, London, England |
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Abstract: | The recent National Research Counci! Panel on Research on Criminal Careers (Blumsteinet al., 1986) identified the following as one of its items for future research: ... changes in the model for analyzing criminal careers] are needed to reflect the consequences of the considerable heterogeneity in the values of A. This paper discusses the range of stochastic models available that take account of variations in A that occur during an individual offender's career, variations in A between different types of offenders, and both forms of variation simultaneously. Together these models are a flexible and powerful tool for studying criminal careers. For completeness, failure rate regression models are also briefly described. |
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Keywords: | criminal careers stochastic models failure rate regression survival models |
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