市场、国家与国际经贸规则体系重构

当前,美国正在打破其自二战以来建立的国际经济秩序,国际经贸规则体系沿着两条"断层线"--"发展断层线"和"脱钩断层线"进行重构:一方面,美国通过单边主义破坏原有规则体系中的发展原则,可能形成发达国家(尤其美国)和发展中国家(尤其中国)之间难以弥合的规则"分水岭";另一方面,尤其在科技领域,美国对中国实施的脱钩行为,可能迫使企业和市场适应不同的规则体系。要深刻理解当前国际经贸规则"破"与"立"背后的规律和深层原因,就必须从推动国际经贸规则形成的两种逻辑--市场逻辑和国家逻辑出发,从历史和现实的交汇中寻求答案。市场逻辑是国际经贸规则发展的原动力,但其内在缺陷又导致全球化必然在国际和国内层面产生发展断层线。国家逻辑则更多反映了东西方之间新的权力平衡及其在构建国际经贸规则体系中的作用。未来很可能形成两种导向的国际经贸规则体系,资本导向的美式规则体系越来越缺乏发展内涵,"一带一路"正在形成"发展导向"的规则体系。规则之争就是制度竞争,主导国际经贸规则体系的重构,必须在全球化背景下妥善处理资本与劳动力之间的利益不平衡关系。中国要进一步发挥制度优势,坚持发展视角。

Market,State,and the Restructuring of International Trade and Economic Rules System

As Trump is breaking down the post-World-War-II international economic order,the international trade and economic rules system is undergoing restructuring along two fault lines,the development fault line and the delinking fault line.On the one hand,the U.S.is unilaterally violating the principle of development,which may bring about an unbridgeable watershed of rules between developed countries(the U.S.in particular)and developing countries(China in particular).On the other hand,businesses and markets will have to adapt to two different sets of technological and technical rules if the U.S.continues the decoupling from China.To develop a thorough understanding of the root cause of the current disruption in the international trade and economic rules system,we must examine two logics,the market logic and the state logic,and seek the answer from the intersection of history and reality.While the market logic tells the motive for making international economic and trade rules,its inherent defects have also led to the development of fault lines at both international and domestic levels in the process of globalization.The state logic reflects the new balance of power between the East and the West and shows how such balance has shaped the international trade and economic rules system.Two kinds of rules systems are likely to take shape in the future.One is capital-oriented rules system led by the U.S.,which may increasingly miss development connotation.The other is development-oriented rules system shaped in the process of the Belt and Road Initiative.Since the competition over rules always becomes institutional competition,whoever wants to play a decisive role in the restructuring of the international trade and economic rules system must properly deal with the imbalance of interests between the capital and the labor force in the context of globalization.China should further play its institutional advantages and stick to the development orientation.