NATO enlargement and Russian security: A comparison of findings from two analytical approaches

The article compares the results of two model analyses on the implications of NATO enlargement for Russia's security in six regions: North‐West, West, South‐West, Caucasus, Central Asia, and Far East. One was done by Vitali Tsygichko using his ‘Model of Defense Sufficiency’ (MDS), the other one by these authors using Tsygichko's data as input to the ‘Generalized Force Ratio Model’ (GEFRAM). While agreeing with regard to the general trend in the development of Russia's security situation, the results differ significantly as to whether these trends indicate a reduction of security below Russia's stated requirements. The results are preliminary and meant as an input to a continued debate on the subject among analysts.