我国人口迁移和城镇化格局的转折性变化:2000-2020年

通过历次人口普查和相关统计资料分析发现,2000-2020年间我国人口迁移流动和城镇化空间格局已经发生转折性变化。以2010年为界,中西部人口向东部迁移的净增量已由波浪式推高转变为波浪式回落,省际之间的流动人口增长明显减缓,乡城转移的人口年龄红利逐渐消逝,城乡老龄化程度双双增长。其重要原因在于中西部地区经济增长和城镇化速度反超东部。进一步分析发现:我国人口与经济区域均衡发展初露端倪,人口空间格局新变化使区域均衡发展面临新机遇和新挑战;胡焕庸线的稳定性奠定了我国人口发展区域均衡的大格局,未来我国人口空间格局的东西变化仍将主要发生在东南半壁内部的东部沿海与内地之间。

The Turning Change of the Spatial Patterns of Population Migration and Urbanization in China from 2000 to 2020

Based on previous censuses and relevant statistical data,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the changes in the spatial pattern of inter-provincial population migration and urbanization in China from 2000 to 2020.It is found that the net migration of population from the central and western regions to the eastern regions has declined significantly since 2010,which is mainly due to the fact that the economic growth and urbanization speed of the central and western regions are faster than that of the eastern regions.The article points out that the balanced development of population and economy in China is beginning to emerge,and the new changes of population spatial pattern make regional balanced development face new opportunities and challenges.The stability of Hu’s Line has laid a foundation for the regional balanced development of population in China.In the future,the changes of population spatial pattern in China will mainly occur between the eastern coast and the mainland within the southeastern half China.