Uncertainty and Turnout

This article develops a model that simultaneously considersindividual turnout and vote choice while also accounting foruncertainty about candidates. The theoretical development ofthis model implies that the effects of uncertainty on turnoutvary with the strength of individual preferences. Applicationof the model to individual choice in the 1996 American presidentialelection confirms that decreasing uncertainty about the charactertraits of the candidates decreases the probability of abstentionfor individuals with strong preferences but increases the probabilityof abstention for individuals with weak preferences.