Why Do Adolescents Overestimate Their Peers' Smoking Prevalence? Correlates of Prevalence Estimates Among California 8th-Grade Students

Adolescents' estimates of their peers' smoking prevalence can influence their own smoking behavior. However, it is not clear how these prevalence estimates are formed, or what factors influence their accuracy. This study used data from a statewide sample of 5870 8th-grade adolescents in California to examine the correlates of smoking prevalence estimates. Best friends' smoking accounted for the largest proportion of the variance in prevalence estimates. Other significant correlates included female gender, actual smoking prevalence in the student's school, perceptions of smoking on TV, perceived access to cigarettes, low academic performance, cigarette offers, and ethnicity. The variables in the model accounted for 23.8% of the variance in smoking prevalence estimates. Adolescents with smokers in their social networks and schools may be especially susceptible to smoking, because their peers' smoking may give them the impression that smoking is more normative and prevalent than it actually is.