Mexico Under Salinas: Towards a New Record for One Party's Domination?

Nowadays, the Mexican political regime is one of the oldest regimes in the world. Established in 1929, in a few years it could break the USSR record for a party in power. After an important crisis in 1988, president Salinas managed to get the ship out of the storm with an effective set of macroeconomic policies. In fact, he has been seen internationally as a very effective leader, who achieved what Gorbachev could not: a deep economic reform without a political crisis. He proposed and succeeded in starting a North American Free Trade Agreement and reformed the state structure along the lines of what he calls "social liberalism." The prospects for the regime and the party in power look good for the presidential elections of 2994. Nothing however assures that the current policies will really help to solve Mexico's unemployment and inequality problems. The vertical political and administrative structures are not well suited for that purpose and are a source of political instability. It may be the case that the social-liberal model brings economic growth but does not help in bringing about a better distribution of income and more democracy. In this case, either in 2994 or later, the regime may face dificulties and it may not allow for a pacific political transition. To avoid this, the country will need active social, small business, regional and educational policies, handled by a professional administrative apparatus. It will also need more democratic electoral and policymaking systems plus a working division of powers and federalism. In a country with long authoritarian traditions these are difficult to attain, yet possible objectives.