中国FTA战略对双边贸易依存度的影响研究

随着经济全球化不断地深入发展,区域经济一体化也正在加速发展,双边FTA不断在国家之间签署,以自由贸易区为主要形式的区域贸易安排不断出现。该文选取2002年-2017年中国和FTA协议国双边的贸易数据,运用PSM-DID模型分析中国签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响如何。研究结果发现:第一,签订FTA对中国和协议国双方的贸易依存度具有提升作用;第二,中国与不同发展程度、不同区域类型的国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响不同,与发达国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的提升作用比发展中国家作用明显,与周边国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响也更大。

Research on the Impact of China’s FTA Strategy on Bilateral Trade Dependence

With the continuous deepening of economic globalization, regional economic integration is also accelerating, bilateral FTAs are constantly signed between countries, and regional trade arrangements have emerged with the main form of free trade areas. This paper selects the bilateral trade data between China and FTA countries from 2002 to 2017, and uses the PSM-DID model to analyze the impact of China’s FTA on bilateral trade dependence. The results show that: First, the signing of the FTA has an effect on the trade dependence between China and the contracting countries. Second, China has different impacts on the bilateral trade dependence between countries with different levels of development and different regional types. The impact of the FTA with developed countries on bilateral trade dependence is greater than developing countries. And the impact of the FTA with neighboring countries on bilateral trade dependence is also greater.