是战略继承还是策略调整?——日本民主党政府东北亚安全政策述评

"战略是一个国家或政府对全局性、高层次的重大问题的筹划与指导"。1]而政策则是"国家或政党为实现一定历史时期的路线而制定的行动准则。"2]日本民主党上台执政后,面对东北亚地区不断变化的新的地区安全环境,对于一个没有执政经验的新政党来说,其采取的各项政策在战略层面上只能是原自民党政府的继承和延续,不会因新政党上台执政而发生战略性"急变"。2011年以后,东北亚地区形势因朝鲜半岛局势、中日关系摩擦加深以及日俄在解决领土问题上的新纠纷等等,而增加了不确定性,使民主党政府的东北亚安全政策面临着新难题和新挑战,也逼迫其在安全政策上作出新调整。但这些调整仅仅是根据新形势变化作出的政策对应,多属于"策略"层面。野田首相其人、性格及处事方式的圆滑,为日本走出东北亚地区安全"困局"多少会增加一些新变量。

Reviews on the Security Policy in Northeast Asia of the Democratic Party of Japan

Strategy is the planning and guidance on global,high-level major issues of a state or government.However,policy is the guidelines for action to realize the route of a certain historical period by the state or party.After coming into power,the Democratic Party of Japan faced with new changing Northeast Asia regional security environment.As a new party with no experiences in governance,the Democratic Party should only follow the policies of the LDP government in strategic level.As a result,there will be no sudden change.Since 2011,due to the tough situation of Korean Peninsula,frictions of Sino-Japan relations,and Russia-Japan territorial disputes,there are new uncertainties in Northeast Asia.The security policy of the Democratic Party government is facing new problems and challenges.In this case,new policy adjustments according to the changing environment are unavoidable.Noda,the Prime Minister,his character and sleek way of doing things will increase the uncertainty for Japan to get out of the regional security dilemma in Northeast Asia.