广东东莞市男性青少年肩关节正位DR片骨龄研究

目的利用肩关节正位数字化X线片（DR片）上诸骨发育特点建立男性青少年骨龄评测数学模型。方法对广东东莞市310名15~22岁男性青少年拍摄肩关节正位DR片,根据锁骨肩峰端（X1）、肩胛骨肩峰端（X2）、喙突（X3）、肱骨近端（X4）及锁骨胸骨端（X5）骨骺发育分级评分,利用SPSS统计进行各骨骼发育评分与年龄间的相关分析、Fisher＇s线性两类判别分析及多元逐步回归分析。结果 X1~X5与生活年龄间的Pearson相关系数分别为0.496、0.571、0.559、0.702、0.807（P〈0.01）;16、17、18周岁判别分析综合判别率为87.2%~91.4%,年龄推断多元逐步回归方程准确率（±1岁）约79.8%。结论本研究建立的年龄判别分析方程及多元逐步回归方程,可为法医活体年龄鉴定提供了新的地区性标准和方法。

Skeletal age estimation in Dongguan male adolescence by digital shoulder X-rale

Objective To investigate the characteristics of skeletal development and establish mathematical model of skeletal age estimation in Dongguan male adolescence by shoulder X-rale.Methods Digital X-rale images of shoulder were collected from 310 males（ aged 15 ~ 22 years） in Dongguan city.Extremitas acromialis claviculae（ X1）,acromial end（ X2）,coracoid（ X3）,proximal humerus（ X4） and extremitas sternalis claviculae（ X5） development were estimated according to the graded standard of bone development process.Correlation analysis,Fisher＇s discriminant analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis were performed using SPSS 17.0.Results The Pearson correlation coefficient between the X1 ~ X5 development and chronological age were 0.496,0.571,0.559,0.702 and 0.807 respectively（ P 0.01）.The discriminatory equations of 16,17 or 18 years old were established,and the discriminant rate were 87.2%,91.4% and 88.3% respectively.Accuracy（ ± 1 year） of the multiple stepwise regression equation was about 79.8%.Conclusion Mathematical model of skeletal age estimation in Dongguan male adolescence by shoulder X-rale were established and provided new evidence and method for forensic age estimation.