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The Impact of Imprisonment on Marriage and Divorce: A Risk Set Matching Approach
Authors:Robert Apel  Arjan A. J. Blokland  Paul Nieuwbeerta  Marieke van Schellen
Affiliation:(1) School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, 135 Western Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA;(2) Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, Postbus 71304, 1008 BH Amsterdam, The Netherlands;(3) Department of Criminology, Leiden University, Steenschuur 25, 2311 ES Leiden, The Netherlands;(4) Department of Sociology, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
Abstract:Marriage has a prominent place in criminological theory and research as one institution that has the potential to genuinely foster desistance from a criminal career. Mass imprisonment policies in the United States and elsewhere, therefore, pose a potential threat of increased crime if they impede the ability of ex-prisoners to reintegrate into society by stigmatizing them and limiting their chances in the marriage market. We use a long-term study of a conviction cohort in The Netherlands to ascertain the effect that first-time imprisonment has on the likelihood of marriage and divorce. The results suggest that the effect of imprisonment on the likelihood of marriage (among unmarried offenders) is largely a selection artifact, although there is very weak evidence for a short-lived impact that does not persist past the first year post-release. This is interpreted as a residual incapacitation effect. On the other hand, the results strongly suggest that the experience of incarceration leads to a substantially higher divorce risk among offenders who are married when they enter prison.
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