Revolutions without guerrillas

While most scholars and policy analysts have long focused on guerrilla warfare as the predominant model of revolution, it has actually been revolutions without guerrillas that have toppled regimes throughout the world in the past decade. The 1989 popular uprisings in Eastern Europe that marked the end of more than 40 years of Communist rule were only the latest manifestation of a trend that had seen governments fall from Iran to the Philippines. Among the key differences between traditional insurgencies and the growing phenomenon of revolutions without guerrillas is the sudden and explosive nature of the latter. Whereas it may take an insurgency years, or even decades, to reach a point of ‘crisis’, thereby allowing sufficient time to design policy, supply weapons, or create strategies, in this new situation governments can be toppled in a matter of weeks and countries can become paralyzed overnight. Popular uprisings also tend to be less ideological and usually less violent than guerrilla campaigns. This article, which is a policy‐oriented study, outlines the characteristics of this phenomenon and discusses its implications for US interests in the 1990s.