2011～2012年中国—东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测

2011年中国与东盟的进出口贸易总额突破3600亿美元,增幅回落但仍在高位,中方逆差扩大且呈进一步向海关特殊监管区域、外商投资企业、资源类产品以及东部沿海省市等方面集中的趋势。一般贸易、外资企业、机电产品等方面均占中国—东盟贸易的一半。私营企业对双方进出口增长的贡献突出,而加工贸易、外商投资企业、国有企业等方面所占比重则在下降。数据检验分析显示,中国、日本、韩国、美国与东盟的贸易具有稳定的协整关系、关联程度。计量预测2012年的中国—东盟经贸合作将保持持续的增长势头。

A Quantitative Analysis on Goods Trade of China-ASEAN in 2011 and Its Prediction in 2012

In 2011, the trade between China and ASEAN countries witnessed strong growth,volume of export and import broke through 360 billion USD. The trade growth rate showed a declining trend but still at high level. China’s deficit with ASEAN widened and concentrated in the special area supervised by customs, foreign invested enterprises, resource-intensive products and the eastern provinces of China. Half of China-ASEAN trade are original trade,undertaken by foreign invested enterprises or mechanical and electrical products. Growth contribution by private enterprises in this year are outstanding,but the proportion of processing trade,foreign invested enterprises and state-owned firms are declining. Analysis by econometrics test shows that the trade series of China-ASEAN,and its counterpart of US,Japan and Korea with ASEAN, have stable co-integration relationship and interact each other. Basing on the statistical model,we predict that the China-ASEAN trade in 2012 will keep a sustainable growth rate.