Comparative Analysis of Insect Succession Data from Victoria (Australia) Using Summary Statistics versus Preceding Mean Ambient Temperature Models |
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Authors: | Mel Archer B.Sc. Ph.D. M.B.B.S. |
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Affiliation: | Department of Zoology, The University of Melbourne, , Melbourne, Vic., 3010 Australia |
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Abstract: | Minimum postmortem interval (mPMI) can be estimated with preceding mean ambient temperature models that predict carrion taxon pre‐appearance interval. But accuracy has not been compared with using summary statistics (mean ± SD of taxon arrival/departure day, range, 95% CI). This study collected succession data from ten experimental and five control (infrequently sampled) pig carcasses over two summers (n = 2 experimental, n = 1 control per placement date). Linear and exponential preceding mean ambient temperature models for appearance and departure times were constructed for 17 taxa/developmental stages. There was minimal difference in linear or exponential model success, although arrival models were more often significant: 65% of linear arrival (r2 = 0.09–0.79) and exponential arrival models (r2 = 0.05–81.0) were significant, and 35% of linear departure (r2 = 0.0–0.71) and exponential departure models (r2 = 0.0–0.72) were significant. Performance of models and summary statistics for estimating mPMI was compared in two forensic cases. Only summary statistics produced accurate mPMI estimates. |
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Keywords: | forensic science forensic entomology ecological succession carrion minimum postmortem interval pre‐appearance interval accumulated degree days |
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