基于网络媒介的突发性公共危机信息传播仿真和管理对策研究

危机信息的健康传播在突发性公共危机管理中至关重要。为了研究突发性公共危机信息在网络环境中传播的特征，本文以复杂适应系统理论为指导，利用多主体建模方法，基于Repast平台模拟突发性公共危机信息在网络媒介中的传播过程。通过模型仿真我们发现突发性公共危机在网络环境中传播的生命周期现象和群极化现象；并且分析比较了各主体属性在不同参数值下的演化结果，探寻危机信息传播的有效方法，为政府如何应对危机管理提供决策支持，以期有效控制突发性公共危机信息在网络环境的恶性传播。

Paroxysmal Public Crisis Information Transmission Simulation and Management Countermeasures in Network Environment

It is important that crisis information cab be disseminated properly for governments. In order to research on how to control crisis information communication effectively in network environment, this paper uses multi-agent based modeling to establish a crisis communication process simulation model under the guidance of complex adaptive system theory. Through observing the evolutionary process operation in the Repast platform, we find that crisis information communication has lifecycle and polarization phenomenon. In addition, by comparing the operation results with different values, this paper draws some management counter-measures, in order to supply decision-making on crisis information transmission for the government.