阿美双边安全协议的发展进程与困境

阿美双边安全协议自2012年11月提出以来一波三折,经过双方一年多的反复磋商、妥协,阿富汗支尔格大会批准了协议草案。然而,卡尔扎伊公然拒绝在协议书上签字,并将该协议的签署时间拖延至2014年总统大选之后。尽管该协议最终必然会在北约撤军之前签订,然而,由于受阿国内派系之争、塔利班的武力威胁以及阿关之间的战略矛盾等因素的制约,该协议的最终版本能否满足双方的预期利益仍在博弈之中。

The Process and Dilemma of the U.S.-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement

Since the proposal of the U.S.-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement in November 2012,it has experienced twists and turns.After more than a year of negotiations,both sides compromised.The Afghan Loya Jirga approved a draft agreement;however,President Hamid Karzai openly refused to sign the agreement,and delayed it until the 2014 presidential election.Although the agreement must eventually be signed before the NATO withdrawal,yet,due to the contradiction strategy between Afghanistan and the U.S.,the force threat of Taliban,as well as the domestic factions’struggle,whether the final version of this agreement can achieve the expected benefits of both sides is still unknown.