日本民主党实现政权交替可能性分析

"政党不信"与民主党突起,2003年日本众议院选举形成了民主党与自民党对峙的两大政党格局。然而,从众议院选举以及政党的分化过程来看,民主党实现政权交替的条件尚未成熟。其一,民主党的选举纲领,与英国政党比较,基本沿用了传统的"选举后模式",还未能向"政策选择可能性"的政权纲领转换;其二,由于在野党分崩离析与整合困境,民主党尚未形成强大的政权交替的推动力量;其三,在以小选举区制为中心的选举制度下,自民党"一党超强"地位仍未改变。

An Analysis on the Possibility of the Democratic Party of Japan's Coming into Power

With the the -alignment'in political parties and the rise of the Liberal Democratic Party, the opposition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party formed during the Parliament Election of Japan 2003. However, the Democratic Party isnt mature enough to come into power considering the Parliament Election and the de - alignment of political parties. One, the election manifesto of the Democratic Party is basically of the traditional after - election pattern',it's far from the manifesto for Political Power with possibility of policy - choice', compared with the political parties in England. Two, as the outs are in an awkward predicament of de - alignment and alignment, the outs couldn't be the powerhouse to realize the political power alternation. Three, under the small selection area system, the super - party' status of the Liberal Democratic Party hasn't been changed yet.