A recidivism analysis of Maryland's community probation program

This study employed a type of quasi-experimental research design that compared a sample of offenders who underwent community supervision (HotSpot) with a matched sample of offenders who underwent “normal” probation supervision (presample) in Maryland. In addition to examining the recidivism pattern of both offender groups, specific attention was also devoted to the potential inhibiting effects of social bonds. Twelve months of recidivism information was collected to include both rearrest and technical violations. Results suggested that the survival distribution (for both rearrest and technical violation) of HotSpot probationers was not significantly different from the survival distribution for pre-HotSpot probationers. In addition, probationer's level of “stakes in conformity” served to inhibit both measures of recidivism, suggesting that offenders with more social bonds were less likely to incur a rearrest or citation for a technical violation. Theoretical and policy implications are highlighted, as are directions for future research.