Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places |
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Authors: | Wim Bernasco |
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Institution: | (1) Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), P.O. Box 71304, 1008 BH Amsterdam, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Discrete choice recently emerged as a new framework for analyzing criminal location decisions, but has thus far only been
used to study the choice amongst large areas like census tracts. Because offenders also make target selection decisions at
much lower levels of spatial aggregation, the present study analyzes the location choices of offenders at detailed spatial
resolutions: the average unit of analysis is an area of only 18 residential units and 40 residents. This article reviews the
discrete choice and spatial choice literature, justifies the use of geographic units this small, and argues that because small
spatial units depend strongly on their environment, models are needed that take into account spatial interdependence. To illustrate
these points, burglary location choice data from the Netherlands are analyzed with discrete choice models, including the spatial
competition model. |
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Keywords: | |
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