Generalised estimates of diffusion rates for the oxygen blown steel process: An international comparison

The purpose of this study is to build on the results recently obtained by Poznanski (1990). First, the estimation technique is generalised by removing both the symmetric restrictions and the effects of autocorrelated errors that are present in simple logistic functions. Secondly, attention is drawn to the existence and consequences of multicollinearity when non linear techniques are applied to a general exponential. Thirdly, an attempt is made to quantify the importance of market structure and time lags in adoption as determinants of diffusion speed. Finally, a comparison between these generalised results and Poznanski's is made. The study concludes that, by generalising the estimation technique, some significant changes take place. Changes occur in the ordering and magnitude of diffusion speeds, especially amongst the developing and centrally planned economies. Changes also occur in the nature of the diffusion process, and in the importance attributed to market structure and diffusion lags in determining the rate of diffusion. It is also shown that, for some countries, multicollinearity imposes constraints on the type of generality that can be obtained.