论风险型侦查决策

从决策形态诠释和决策优选方法上看,风险型决策是最接近现实侦查决策的决策模型。风险型侦查决策以期望值准则为价值标准,科学分析和定位侦查经验、损益和效用,通过决策树分析法、贝叶斯分析法、灵敏度分析法和效用值分析法进行侦查方案优选。风险型侦查决策研究的重要意义在于将决策科学引入侦查学,为侦查工作提供科学方法论基础。

Concerning Investigation Decision Making under Risk

Decision making under risk is the closest to real investigation decision model from the view of the morphological interpretation and the optimization method of decision making. The investigation decision under risk is applied to expected value criterion as a value standard, to scientifically analyze and orientate investigative experience, profit and utility. An investigation program is optimized by the methods of deci- sion tree analysis ,Bayesian analysis, sensitivity analysis and utility analysis. The importance of research on investigation decision making under risk lies in introducing the science of decision making to the science of investigation,providing a scientific methodology foundation for investigation.