Two Steps Forward,One Step Back: Merkel's CDU/CSU and the Politics of Welfare State Reform

Given its traditional support for conservative welfare state policies, the Christian Democratic Union's embrace of major reform measures in late 2003 seemingly marked a significant shift in the party's direction. The extent of its commitment to this new course became a key question in German politics during the election of 2005 and the early phase of Angela Merkel's Grand Coalition. This article examines the factors that contributed to her CDU's embrace of welfare state retrenchment in light of the literature on the politics of social policy reform. It argues that this shift in party policy was driven mainly by calculations of perceived partisan opportunity and organisational latitude. When the latter appeared to change, the consensus on major reform within the CDU crumbled, which in turn affected the party's 2005 campaign and its role in the Grand Coalition government.