基于Leslie方程预测的江苏省人口老龄化特征分析

人口老龄化已成为21世纪江苏省面临的巨大挑战。本文基于2005年1%人口抽样调查以及第五次人口普查等数据资料,在对总和生育率预测设定的基础上,运用Leslie矩阵方程对分年龄人口进行预测,进而得到2010—2050年江苏省65岁及以上人口数量以及占总人口比例、80岁及以上人口数量以及占总人口比例等人口老龄化有关指标预测值,藉此剖析了江苏省人口老龄化水平高、速度快、高龄化现象严重、未来人口老龄化阶段性明显等特征。

Characteristics of Population Aging in Jiangsu Province:An Analysis Based on the Prediction by Leslie Matrix Equation

Population aging constitutes a big challenge Jiangsu Province has to meet in the 21st century.According to the one-percent sample census in 2005 and the fifth national population census and on the basis of the prediction about the total birth rate,we made a prediction about the development of different sub-age populations in Jiangsu by using Leslie matrix equation,in particular about the 65-and-older and 80-and-older populations and their respective proportions in the total population of this province over ...