作为技术预见工具的技术路线图及其应用前景

技术预见是有步骤的对科学、技术、经济、环境和社会的远期发展进行探索的过程,其目的是选定可能产生最大经济与社会效益的战略研究领域和新技术,而技术路线图是对某一特定技术领域的未来延伸的看法。技术路线图作为一种战略工具已经广被用于技术预见领域,旨在于提高技术预见活动的影响力和把握未来的能力,更能把握技术发展中的规律性。在科技政策领域,利用技术路线图进行技术预见,可以通过不断修正未来技术发展方向的选择机制,为科技规划等技术预见活动提供了一个整合不同利益共同体观点的平台,能够避免制定科技政策过程中潜在的技术负效应,能够提升科技计划管理过程中的行政能力。

Technology Roadmap Used As a Tool of Technology Foresight and Its Future in Application

Technology foresight involves the systematic attempt to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, economy, environment and society, with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging of generic technologies likely to yield the most economic and social benefits; the technology roadmap is the perspective about the future extension towards a certain technology domain. As a strategic tool, the technology roadmap is used widely in technology foresight domain, strengthening the influence of the technology foresight movement and the ability of holding the future and even the rules of the technology development. In the field of technological policy, using technology roadmap to carry out technology foresight can offer a platform for technology foresight activities, such as technological program, to integrate different opinions from different interest communities, by modifying the choosing mechanism about the way of future technology development continually. It can avoid the potential technology negative effects in the course of making technological policy and furthermore upgrade the ability in administration during technological program management.