美韩同盟与未来中韩关系的战略框架

随着中韩关系特别是政治安全关系的发展,中韩关系与美韩同盟之间的矛盾可能更加突出。美国一直对中韩关系的发展保持警惕,而韩国则坚持以美韩同盟为其外交安保政策的基石,这些都是提升中韩关系的深层次挑战。中韩关系要摆脱美国因素是不可能的,未来中韩关系的战略框架也必须与中美韩多边关系框架,甚至是整个半岛的地缘政治框架结合在一起考虑。而且,为了在中美韩博弈中占得先机,中国必须对这种未来战略框架进行前瞻性的规划和设计。本文认为,出于中国及地区整体利益的考虑,半岛的未来既要摆脱基于冷战经验的对抗式两极格局,也不能寄希望于那种多极均势下的脆弱和平。从长远来看,只有包括所有各方在内的地区集体安全机制才是稳定与和平的长久保障。美韩同盟可以成为这一机制的起点但又必须被超越,这就需要相关各方就此达成战略妥协,就地区未来做出彼此可以接受的决定。考虑到中美间的深层次不信任,韩国应该在中美间发挥沟通者而不是均衡者也不是中立者的作用,未来中韩关系应该在这种新背景下予以重新设计和发展。

The U.S.-ROK Alliance and the Future Strategic Framework of Sino-ROK Relations

Mong with the development of the Sino-ROK relations especially in its political and security sectors, there would be more and more contradictions between the Sino-ROK relations and U. S. -ROK alliance. To deepen the Sino-ROK relations, the challenges as follow must be dealt with： the alert of U. S. on the development of Sino-ROK relations and theinsistence of RO K on its alliance with the U. S. It is impossible to get rid of the U. S. factor from the Sino-ROK relations, and the future strategic framework of Sino-ROK relations will have to be connected with the trilateral relations among China, ROK and the U. S. even the geopolitical arrangement of the whole Korean Peninsula. To win this geopolitical game, China should have its own plan and road map about this strategic framework. The author suggests that out of the interests of China and the region, the future of the peninsula couldn＇t be designed into the bipolar structure according to the experience of Cold War or the multi-polar balance of power with a fragile peace. In a long run, only the regional collective security regime including all concerned parties is a guarantee of long stability and peace. The U. S. -ROK alliance would be a starting point of this process of regime development but must be replaced in the end by this regime, if all concerned parties make a compromise. Given the deep mutual mistrust between China and the U.S., ROK should play a role of bridge rather than a balancer or neutral. Accordingly, the Sino-ROK relations should be redesigned and developed in this new background.