| 我国犯罪发案率与城市化进程的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁亚民,杨晓伟.我国犯罪发案率与城市化进程的实证研究[J].四川警官高等专科学校学报,2010,22(5):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁亚民 杨晓伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 梁亚民(甘肃政法学院,甘肃兰州,730070);杨晓伟(兰州商学院,甘肃兰州,730020) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章采用1978-2007年全国犯罪发案率与城市化进程指标数据．通过建立回归与AKMA组合模型（科克伦迭代法），分析了1978年以来我国城市化进程对犯罪发案率的影响，并用2008年的数据对模型的精度进行了检验；从而探讨了二者间存在的相关关系，并就城市化进程对犯罪发案率的影响加以解释。
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| 关 键 词： | 犯罪发案率 城市化进程 协整检验 回归与AKMA组合模型 |
Empirical Analysis about Chinese Crime Incidence Rate and the Urbanization |
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| Authors: | LIANG Ya-min YANG Xiao-wei |
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| Institution: | LIANG Ya-min,YANG Xiao-wei |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistics data from the year 1978 to 2007 about Chinese crime incidence rate and urbanized level, and establishes a regression and ARMA model,this paper analyzes the change of crime incidence rate which was caused by Chinese urbanization since the year 1978,and uses the data of year 2008 to test the accuracy of the model .Then,based on the empirical result,this paper discusses the key relations between crime incidence rate and urbanized level and explaines impactions between crime incidence rate and the urbanization. |
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| Keywords: | Crime Incidence Rate Urbanized Level Cointegration Tests Regression and ARMA Model |
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