Realigning forces in the United States elections of 1984

Major shifts in party identification, presidential and congressional vote occurred in the United States between 1956 and 1984. National survey evidence demonstrates that a marked transformation in the social bases of partisan choice also took place during this period. Four alternative theories are offered as plausible explanations for these trends. The best fitting explanation involves judgments about the past performance of the parties and candidates. The analysis suggests that the outcome of the 1984 election was not simply a reflection of Reagan's personal popularity. The election was heavily influenced by changes in the social bases of party support, thus raising broader implications for the party system.