Dynamics of the Soviet illicit drug market

The demise of communism, Westernization, internal economic reform and the disintegration of the Soviet state create fertile soil for the growth of drug abuse and drug trafficking in (the former) USSR. Rates of drug abuse have soared since the mid-1980s, especially in the European parts of the (former) Union; also, organized interregional drug mafias have emerged to serve this rapidly expanding market. The (former) USSR does not now participate significantly in the international narcotics market as a consumer or supplier of illicit substances; however, this pattern of relative self-sufficiency could change dramatically in the 1990s. Convertibility of the ruble could result in a large flow of Western hard drugs such as cocaine, heroin or crack into European Russia. A rapid expansion of trade, travel and economic ties with Western countries will widen the pipeline for the movement of drugs. Finally, Moscow's weakening hold over the (former) Soviet Central Asian republics and Central Asia's generally bleak economic prospects correlate with an apparent massive expansion of drug crop cultivation in that region; if current trends continue, (former) Soviet Central Asia could well become a significant world supplier of hashish and opium products, during the 1990s.Research for this study was completed prior to the transformation of the USSR into the Commonwealth of Independent States.This paper was published as an occasional paper by the Kennan Institute of Advanced Soviet studies and has been updated since then.This paper was prepared for the Department of State as part of its external research program. Views or conclusions contained herein should not be interpreted as representing the official opinion or policy of the Department of State.