THE IDENTIFICATION OF "CAREER CRIMINALS" FROM "CHRONIC OFFENDERS" IN A COHORT |
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| Authors: | ALFRED BLUMSTEIN SOUMYO MOITRA |
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| Affiliation: | J. Erik Jonsson Professor and the Director of the Urban Systems Institute at the School of Urban and Public Affairs of Carnegie-Mellon University. Dr. Blumstein received the degrees of Bachelor of Engineering Physics and the Ph.D. in Operations Research from Cornell University.;currently a Ph.D student in the School of Urban and Public Affairs at Carnegie-Mellon University. His research interest is in statistical analysis and the application of operations research models in criminal justice. |
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| Abstract: | The findings by Wolfgang et al. that 6.3% of their cohort had 52% of the recorded police contacts is well known. This retrospective analysis has been used to suggest that imprisoning these "chronic" offenders will avert a correspondingly disproportionate amount of crime. On prospective analysis of the arrest histories, however, the recidivism probability is found to be constant after the third contact, suggesting that prior record has little predictive value regarding future criminality. These observations raise important questions about the benefits of "career criminal" programs and their incapacitative effects. |
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