省直管县改革与县级政府财政解困——基于6省面板数据的实证研究

在全国各地普遍试点并推广的省直管县改革被认为是实现县域经济盘活和县级政府财政解困的重要手段,但关于该问题的大样本实证证据却尚未发现。基于6省2004-2009年的面板数据,采用基于自然实验的倍差法模型估计,本文实证分析了省直管县改革对县级政府财政自给能力的实际影响。研究发现省直管县改革的财政政策效应明显,显著提高了县级政府的财政自给率,但其政策效应呈现出边际效益递减的趋势。研究还发现省直管县改革对县级市、富裕县和规模较大的县的政策效应最明显。本文对上述发现进行了讨论,并据此提出省直管县改革通过提高财政自给率而对县级政府财政解困产生积极作用,但在稳步推进省直管县改革的同时需要采取配套措施;省直管县改革在不同规模、经济发展水平和行政单位性质的县产生的政策效应不尽相同,各地在推行省直管县改革时应因地制宜,结合县域经济和财力情况,制定适宜的政策并采取合适的策略。

Province-Managing-County Reforms and Mitigation of Fiscal Deficiencies of County Governments in China:An Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from Six Provinces

The Province-Managing-County Reforms(PMCRs) experimented and diffused nationally have been considered to be important means to stimulate local economic development and mitigate fiscal deficiencies of county governments in China.However,there are no evidences to support the arguments so far.Based on panel data from six provinces in China and utilizing difference-in-difference estimation of a natural experiment,the paper empirically analyzes the effects of PMCRs on fiscal self-supporting capacity of county governments.It is found that PMCRs do increase fiscal self-supporting rate of county governments,but their policy effects decrease year after year.Also it is found that PMCRs have relatively larger effects for county-level-cities,richer and larger counties.We discuss the findings above and conclude with policy recommendations and future research directions.