Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China |
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Authors: | Juuso Kaaresvirta Aaron Mehrotra |
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Affiliation: | (1) Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), Bank of Finland, P.O. Box 160, 00101 Helsinki, Finland;; |
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Abstract: | We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices. |
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