Incapacitation: Revisiting an Old Question with a New Method and New Data |
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| Authors: | Gary Sweeten Robert Apel |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Arizona State University, Mail code 3250, PO Box 37100, Phoenix, AZ 85069-7100, USA;(2) School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany-SUNY, Albany, NY, USA |
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| Abstract: | We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to obtain estimates of the number of crimes avoided through incapacitation
of individual offenders. Incarcerated individuals are matched to comparable non-incarcerated counterparts using propensity
score matching. Propensity scores for incarceration are calculated using a wide variety of time-stable and time-varying confounding
variables. We separately analyze juvenile (age 16 or 17) and adult (age 18 or 19) incapacitation effects. Our best estimate
is that between 6.2 and 14.1 offenses are prevented per year of juvenile incarceration, and 4.9 to 8.4 offenses are prevented
per year of adult incarceration.
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| Keywords: | Incapacitation Incarceration Propensity score matching Juvenile justice Prison |
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