The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): the Chinese perspective

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was accepted by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as one among other pathfinders, for a comprehensive Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). Though the TPP negotiations do not include China at the moment, she has declared her interest in the TPP and is paying close attention to it. In fact, many question the likely success of the TPP with China's exclusion from it, given her prominence in the region. To provide insights for leveraging trade opportunities with the TPP economies, China's export potentials with the TPP are empirically tested and compared with those of alternative economic configurations in East Asia which China is a party to, namely the ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6. The empirical findings suggest that China's participation in the TPP will offer better market access for final goods, an important trade opportunity that is somewhat limited in partnerships through regional initiatives. Even then, the paper contends that the payoffs to China following the TPP deal remain intangible and at best speculative given the coverage (or substance) and depth of the agreement.