百年间国际政治经济秩序的转型压力——资本流动、产业——金融联系与自由秩序

当前,新自由主义国际秩序遭遇来自美国国内的严重冲击。这与一百年前,古典自由主义国际秩序遭遇来自英国国内的冲击十分类似。为何在一百年间,英美两国均遭遇国内对国际秩序的严重冲击?本文指出,各国不同的产业-金融联系是一项关键前情。在解除对资本跨国流动的管制后,英美两国疏远的产业-金融联系加剧了资本跨国流动带来的问题。由于缺乏国内利益纽带约束,能够用脚投票的英美两国资本生产意愿降低;相对当地政府以及普通民众的议价能力提升。资本分得更多的经济份额。由贫富分化引发的政治问题日益凸显。理性的政治家利用国内分化的政治结构,动员国内民众,给自由国际秩序构成巨大压力。与英美不同,德国等有着紧密产业-金融联系的国家,即便面临资本全球化浪潮,国内冲击自由秩序的压力相对较小。基于其政治经济安排的特点,中国能为维护国际秩序做出积极贡献。

Pressures of International Political and Economic Order Transformation in One Hundred Years: Capital Mobility,Industry-Finance Relationship,and Liberal Order

The Neoliberal international order has encountered a serious shock from the United States at present. The classical liberal order dominated by the Great Britain a hundred years ago was also encountered the similar shock. Why in the past 100 years, both the Great Britain and United States suffered such serious domestic shocks to the international order? This paper argues that the industry-finance relationship in different countries is a critical antecedent. After deregulation of capital flows, the political economy with distant industry-finance relationship, such as the United States and Great Britain,have faced worsen problems caused by cross-border capital flows. Compared with the local government and labor, capital now can vote with their feet.Largely due to the lack of domestic interest ties, the capital’s willingness of production is declining, and its bargaining power is increasing. Capital gets more share of the economic growth. The political problems caused by the polarization between the rich and the poor are increasingly prominent. Rational politicians utilize this political structure to mobilize the losers in the liberal international order and then, impose great pressure on international order.Germany is different from the Great Britain and United States. Even facing the same wave of capital globalization, Germany with close industry-finance relationship, has less domestic pressures on the liberal order. Based on the special characteristics of its political and economic arrangements, China can make contributions to the maintenance of contemporary international order.