从中日四个政治文件探析两国关系发展轨迹及未来趋势

中日四份政治文件代表着中日关系发展的主要脉络,两国从结束敌对状态、建立邦交关系发展到战略互惠关系经历了曲折复杂的过程。从第四份政治文件的签署到现在已有十多年,随着中国“一带一路”倡议的深化实施、美国从“亚太再平衡”到“印太战略”的调整、日本追求战略性外交的努力等,国际形势、地缘政治格局、国家能力和心态早已发生了深刻变化。本文以新古典现实主义为基础,根据当今国际政治发展现状构建了新的理论模型,从体系层次、国家层次和个人层次上来解析中日关系发展的历史和趋势,得出当今国际社会已经具备了升级中日两国关系的新的时代契机和因素。中日关系的深化、合作领域的拓展、合作程度的加深将是中日未来发展的必然趋势,也将对东亚地区乃至国际社会的稳定繁荣具有重要的现实意义。

Studying the Development Track and Future Trend of China-Japan Relations from the Four Political Documents

The four political documents between China and Japan represent the main thread of the development of China-Japan relations.The two countries have gone through a complicated process from ending hostilities,establishing diplomatic relations to developing a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship.It has been more than 10 years since the signing of the fourth political document.With the deepening implementation of China's"Belt and Road Initiative",the adjustment of the United States from"Asia-Pacific Rebalance"to"Indo-Pacific Strategy"and Japan's efforts to pursue strategic diplomacy,there have been profound changes in the international situation,the geopolitical situation,the national capacity and mentality.Based on neo-classical realism,this paper constructs a new theoretical model according to the current situation of international political development,analyzes the history and trend of China-Japan relations from the system level,the national level and the individual level,and concludes that the international community has a new opportunity and factors to upgrade their relations.The deepening of China-Japan relations,the expansion of cooperation fields and the deepening of cooperation degree will be the inevitable trend of their future.That will also have important practical significance for the stability and prosperity of East Asia and even the international community.