韩日关系恶化的成因、背景及前景

2018年以来朝鲜半岛局势和东北亚国际关系发生了一系列重大变化。中国与朝鲜、韩国的关系同时改善并加强。中日关系也重回正常发展的轨道。然而,韩日关系则反复出现各种矛盾和摩擦,持续恶化。21世纪以来,中日关系与韩日关系发展变化往往具有同一种倾向,即中日关系恶化,韩日关系也会倒退;中日关系改善,韩日关系也会回暖。然而,2018年以来,中日关系与韩日关系则出现反常的"逆向发展"倾向。韩、日同中国之间关系有所改善,而韩日之间关系则明显恶化。这种逆向发展现象产生的原因值得关注和研究。本文侧重分析2018年以来韩日关系恶化的成因,并在此基础上对韩日关系前景做以评估。

The Background,Causes, and Prospects of the Deterioration of ROK-Japan Relations

Since 2018, there have been a series of major changes in the inter-Korea relations and international relations in Northeast Asia. While China’s relations with two Koreas have improved and strengthened at the same time, China-Japan relations have also returned to normal track. Yet,ROK-Japan relations have repeatedly experienced various contradictions and frictions, which led to deterioration of bilateral relations. Since the 21 st century, there has been a tendency that China-Japan relations and ROK-Japan relations develop in the same way;when China-Japan relations deteriorates,ROK-Japan relations worsens as well;when China-Japan relations improves, then ROK-Japan relations also ameliorates. Nonetheless, since 2018,China-Japan relations and ROK-Japan relations have been showing an abnormal "opposite development" tendency;China’s relations with Japan and Republic of Korea have been improved while the bilateral relations between ROK and Japan has been significantly worsened. This paper examines the direct and indirect causes of the current deterioration of ROK-Japan relations. Based on the analysis, the paper also provides prospect for the future of ROK-Japan relations.