USING LINEAR TREND MODELS TO ANALYZE POLICY IMPACT |
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| Authors: | Marvin B. Mandell Stuart I. Bretschneider |
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| Affiliation: | STUART I. BRETSCHNEIDER is a Senior Research Associate of the Technology and Information Policy Program and the Metropolitan Studies Program of the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. His current research interests include developing new techniques for Policy Evaluation, forecasting in Public Organizations and the role information has on public decisionmaking. Dr. Bretschneider recently co-edited the special issue of Public Administration Review on Management Information Systems. |
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| Abstract: | Policy researchers have become increasingly familiar with a number of improved techniques for analyzing data obtained from interrupted time-series designs for evaluating public programs and policies. In this paper we contribute to this trend by presenting two groups of data analysis techniques which are not currently widely used by policy researchers, but are likely to be valuable adjuncts to traditional regression techniques for analyzing data obtained from interrupted time-series designs. First, aids for model specification are presented that enable the analyst to define an appropriate linear trend model—often one which will reduce the degree of multicollinearity and, therefore, produce more precise estimates of the impacts of a public program or policy. Next we consider approaches for point estimation and joint (simultaneous) interval estimation of a policy intervention's total effect at various points in time. |
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