Falling From Grace: Nonestablished Brokerage Parties and the Weight of Predominance in Canadian Provinces and Australian States

Given the conventional meaning of party predominance—winninga majority of legislative seals in four or more consecutiveelections—all sixteen subnational political systems (SPS)in Australia and Canada have featured at least one predominantparty since the end of World War II. In Australia, no predominantparty has failed ever again to hold office, and failed to secureeven official opposition status for two consecutive elections,upon losing predominance. In Canada's central and Atlantic (CAC)provinces, only two of eleven predominant parties have failed.In Canada's four western provinces, however, three of six predominantparties have failed since governing after World War II. Severalfactors combine to produce differences among predominant partiesin Australia and Canada. When these parties engage in brokeragepolitics, and therefore lack entrenched social foundations,and where patterns of socialized party identification have beeninterrupted, the "weight of predominance" can become fatal.Upon losing power, these parties may cease to be relevant. Theworldwide proliferation of federal systems suggests that thelife-cycles of SPS as just described may become more relevantwith time.