21世纪美日贸易谈判及其对华影响

21世纪之初,美日两国相关领域专家曾就开启双边FTA谈判的可行性进行探讨;两国政府间谈判后来也终于启动。作为第一阶段贸易谈判的成果,《美日贸易协定》和《美日数字贸易协定》已于2020年1月1日正式生效。进入21世纪以来,美日贸易谈判得以启动,表面来看是美国为了降低与日本的巨额贸易赤字,利用追加汽车关税手段对日施压,日本被迫应允。实际上,美日贸易谈判的启动和发展是两国在经济利益、双边关系、地缘政治、权力博弈等多种动因综合作用下的结果。美日贸易谈判增加了美国重返TPP/CPTPP制衡中国的可能,为美日联手打造排除中国的数字贸易规则创造了条件,建立了不对称权力谈判的样板,并增大了日本在中、美之间实施战略摇摆的可能性。美日贸易谈判短期内对中国的影响并不明显,但从中长期来看,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情加速推动世界秩序重构、美日两国政府更替、RCEP签署、中欧投资协定谈判如期完成、中国表态积极考虑加入CPTPP并正就相关事项展开研究等新的国际政治经济形势下,会在多个方面产生较大影响。深入分析进入21世纪以来美日贸易谈判有助于中国及时妥善应对相关问题。

U.S.-Japan Trade Talks in the 21st Century and Implications for China

At the beginning of the 21st century,American and Japanese experts discussed the possibility of opening bilateral FTA negotiations.As the outcome of the first phase of trade negotiations,the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement and U.S.-Japan Digital Trade Agreement entered into force on January 1,2020.The launch of the negotiations in the new century appears to be the result of U.S.increasing automobile tariffs in order to reduce the huge trade deficit with Japan.In fact,the launch and progress of the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement negotiations are the outcome of the comprehensive interaction between the economic interests,bilateral relations,geopolitics and power games between the two countries.The U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement negotiations have increased the possibility for the Washington to return to the TPP in order to balance China,create conditions for the United States and Japan to work together to establish digital trade rules that may squeeze China’s development space,and set up a template for asymmetric power negotiations.The impact of the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations on China is not obvious in the short term,but will be felt in the medium and long term.In particular,under the new political and economic circumstances,such as the coronavirus pandemic and its economic and social fallout,change of government in the United States and Japan,the completion of the China-EU investment agreement,and China’s intention to join the CPTPP,an in-depth analysis of the trade negotiations will help China prepare for an effective response.