从东南亚金融危机看人民币汇率制度选择

1997年爆发了席卷东南亚的金融危机,其波及范围之广、影响之深是近几十年来罕见的。本文在简单回顾东南亚金融危机的基础上,特别从汇率制度的角度,结合金融恐慌论对危机爆发的原因进行深入探讨,以此来分析我国当前汇率制度的现状、优点及缺陷,从而阐明人民币汇率从单一钉住美元向钉住一篮子货币过渡,建立与市场相吻合的有弹性的汇率制度是大势所趋,也是我国防范货币危机的最佳选择。

Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and RMB Exchange Rate Choice

In 1997, a financial crisis broke out throughout Southeast Asia with profound effects never seen in the past few decades. Based on a brief review of this crisis, this article attempts to analyze its causes from the perspective of exchange rate system and financial panic theory. After an analysis of the current situation of China's exchange rate system, especially its strengths and weakness, this article draws a conclusion that it is time for China to make a shift from the fixed exchange rate system tied closely to U. S. dollar to currency basket, and to build up the market - determined floating one, which is also the best choice to avoid currency crisis in China.