Policy analysis: A conceptual base for a theory of improvement

The purpose of reason or rationality in the analysis of resource allocation decisions is to provide decision makers with guidance on policy decisions which result in improvement, i.e. a net increment in social welfare. The difficulty with what might be called the microrationality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis as conventionally practised is that unless the context of such rationality is established in the larger framework of what might in turn be called the macrorationality which reflects an awareness of the properties of the whole system, the policy analyst cannot know whether his recommendation will upgrade (constitute an improvement in) or degrade (constitute a deterioration in) the system as a whole. The paper attempts to suggest a first conceptual approach, and an implied research agenda, addressed to developing a more effective general context for policy analysis. The suggested approach has four major components; first, the establishment of the basis for policy analysis in the explicit specification of a general weighted objective function for national policy and a corresponding set of functions for particular programs and projects; second, the development and incorporation in cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis of a set of analytical parameters which establish the basis for policy analyses which are in the first instance comparable, and in the second instance consistent with the national objective function; third, the development of a general analytical framework for cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis which recognizes the essential interdependency of policy decisions, including the financing implications of expenditure policies; and, finally, the explicit recognition of the need for a criterion of overall system improvement in the development of an analytical framework for the measurement of the trades-off or opportunity costs between alternative policy mixes.